rising sea levels

rising sea levels




interesting article

www.charlotte.com/mld/obs...


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RE: rising sea levels




Funny it says "altering habitat now suited for crabs, shrimp and fish" but doesn't mention the almighty plovers




RE: rising sea levels




Yes, interesting and sobering.


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see, the speculative prospecting for $$$ was happening even way back when.


RE: rising sea levels




Do you have a good link to the article? The one in the Op doesn't work. It's hard to comment about it when I can't read it. 11 years isn't very long when talking about sea level though.

John


RE: rising sea levels




Do you have a good link to the article? The one in the Op doesn't work. It's hard to comment about it when I can't read it. 11 years isn't very long when talking about sea level though.

John

J4yDubs


Yes, John, it is. We were told back then we would have a foot rise by 2030, you yourself have said it is now being measured in millimeters.
As for the link, that would be up to the Charlotte Observer archives. I was only reading and responding back then. As I recall it was a federally funded UNC study with a prescribed outcome.
Please go back in time 90-100 pages on this message board forum. It is very revealing. There was discussion, confrontation, conflict, but a lot of civility as well. A lot of interesting reads and history from a lot of well-informed legacy members who are either here occasionally, or have left or passed. Oh, the names and faces I could put with some of those posters on both sides of the debates.



RE: rising sea levels




Do you have a good link to the article? The one in the Op doesn't work. It's hard to comment about it when I can't read it. 11 years isn't very long when talking about sea level though.

John

J4yDubs



How does a 30-year timeframe grab you?

Theory:

[i][b]Global mean temperature will likely rise at about 0.6 degrees Fahrenheit per decade and sea level at about 2.5 inches per decade over the next century. These rates are 3 to 6 times recent historical rates. (emphasis mine)

- Dr. Robert Oppenheimer, June 23rd, 1988, part of Congressional Testimony[/I][/b]


Reality (In graph below, source: NOAA):

[I][b]Notice that the rate of sea level rise is 2.8 millimeters per year (1.1 inches per decade), less than half of what Dr. Oppenheimer predicted. More importantly, notice that the rate of increase has been pretty constant, despite the fact that the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose significantly during that same time period.[/I][/b]

Dr. O’s testimony was given at the same hearing where NASA’s Dr. James Hansen gave testimony that is historically considered to be the start of the Anthropogenic Global Warming er, ummm, “movement”.

Dr. H’s dire predictions failed just as spectacularly. We can delve into his body of work also if you so desire.





RE: rising sea levels





Yes, John, it is. We were told back then we would have a foot rise by 2030, you yourself have said it is now being measured in millimeters.

hatterasnc

I'm not sure who told you that, but I haven't read any of those reports. They would of course be wrong for global measurements. I guess it would really help if that article link worked.

It's standard to use the metric system in scientific reporting, so I'm not sure what your millimeters comment was about. It's not now being measured that way, it always has.

John


RE: rising sea levels




Sea level rises faster in some locations than others due to "land subsidence", the sinking of land. This occurs more in coastal areas than bedrock areas. Why? It is caused by the compaction of sediments caused by natural effects and groundwater withdrawal.


RE: rising sea levels




Sea level rises faster in some locations than others due to "land subsidence", the sinking of land. This occurs more in coastal areas than bedrock areas. Why? It is caused by the compaction of sediments caused by natural effects and groundwater withdrawal.

Robert

This is absolutely true. It happens in reverse as well. For example, Juneau Alaska's sea level is actually dropping because the land is rising at a faster rate than the sea level. That's why they use averaging and look at it globally instead of locally.

John


RE: rising sea levels




Sea level rises faster in some locations than others due to "land subsidence", the sinking of land. This occurs more in coastal areas than bedrock areas. Why? It is caused by the compaction of sediments caused by natural effects and groundwater withdrawal.

Robert


Agree and think since the natural forces of land subsidence is the primary cause we should cease referring to this natural, non-man made effect as "sea level rise" and call it what it is - subsidence. It would take the political drama out of the di$cu$$ion.

Please note that hatteras island water association water is provided by reverse osmosis of seawater, not deepwell sources, and that "groundwater" is not drawn anywhere I am aware of as a potable water source.


RE: rising sea levels




Sea level rises faster in some locations than others due to "land subsidence", the sinking of land. This occurs more in coastal areas than bedrock areas. Why? It is caused by the compaction of sediments caused by natural effects and groundwater withdrawal.

Robert



You are correct, sir! Well, mostly. Sea levels aren't rising faster in some locations, as the sea rise metric is global and stable, where subsidence is local and variable.

Land subsidence aside, NOAA's data shows that sea levels are rising at 2.8 millimeters per year, or 1.1 inches per decade, which is less than half of what Dr. Oppenheimer breathlessly predicted back in 1988.

No reason to panic, we're still in the same Holocene Interglacial Epoch that we have been for the past ~12K years.


RE: rising sea levels




Sea level rises faster in some locations than others due to "land subsidence", the sinking of land. This occurs more in coastal areas than bedrock areas. Why? It is caused by the compaction of sediments caused by natural effects and groundwater withdrawal.

Robert


Agree and think since the natural forces of land subsidence is the primary cause we should cease referring to this natural, non-man made effect as "sea level rise" and call it what it is - subsidence. It would take the political drama out of the di$cu$$ion.

Please note that hatteras island water association water is provided by reverse osmosis of seawater, not deepwell sources, and that "groundwater" is not drawn anywhere I am aware of as a potable water source.

hatterasnc


We have a huge aquifer in Buxton Woods and South which is why there are zoning mods within that special water district. Pretty sure the ability to pump that still exists but agree we use mostly reverse osmosis.


RE: rising sea levels




Sea level rises faster in some locations than others due to "land subsidence", the sinking of land. This occurs more in coastal areas than bedrock areas. Why? It is caused by the compaction of sediments caused by natural effects and groundwater withdrawal.

Robert

This is absolutely true. It happens in reverse as well. For example, Juneau Alaska's sea level is actually dropping because the land is rising at a faster rate than the sea level. That's why they use averaging and look at it globally instead of locally.

John

J4yDubs


Exactly. See graphic below, 2.8mm/annum, which has been stable at that rate for the entirety of modern record keeping, all despite the prophet$ claiming gloom and doom are upon us.




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So, what will sea level rise do to OBX? Miami? Boston? The sewers already back up in Miami at high tide.


RE: rising sea levels




There was a very good, multi-part PBS series called sinking cities. Very well done and interesting.

Click to follow link...


RE: rising sea levels




Yes, thanks, Paul. I saw the one on Miami some time ago. Don't remember all the details now, but it was very interesting. An eye-opening view of the sea level rise rubber meeting the road, so to speak. What I do remember is that all of Florida is built on porous limestone and that water is going to run through it, under it, over it. Sea walls will be ineffective. Really nothing to do except to let it slowly disappear under the waves.

We have off and on thought of buying some property in OBX and maybe retiring there, but I keep coming back to the thought that it is eventually going to be under water and not a particularly good use of, say, $ 500,000. It might be around while I'm around, but maybe not for my kids.

Just curious as to what the potential sea level rise is in OBX.

Now that you mention it, wasn't Norfolk also mentioned in that PBS series as one of the most susceptible areas for sea level rise? Vague recollection that Norfolk has a big problem.


RE: rising sea levels




… We have off and on thought of buying some property in OBX and maybe retiring there, but I keep coming back to the thought that it is eventually going to be under water and not a particularly good use of, say, $ 500,000. It might be around while I'm around, but maybe not for my kids …

Crunch


We bought X Zone in Corolla 6 years ago. 1/4 mile from the beach and a little elevation. Maybe I'll be oceanfront some day! Theeth smiley


RE: rising sea levels




That sounds like some good planning!


RE: rising sea levels




I’ll be dead by the time the water gets up here. No problem!


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Same here, John, but not likely for my kids.

Property values will drop as sea water levels rise. Doesn't seem to make any sense to buy property if we can rent.

Crunch


RE: rising sea levels




Same here, John, but not likely for my kids.

Property values will drop as sea water levels rise. Doesn't seem to make any sense to buy property if we can rent.

Crunch

Crunch


Hey, if you are happy renting - rent. All is good. One of the major factors that I used when evaluating properties was Dare County's Shoreline History that uses Army Corp of Engineers maps from 1852 to 1980 and aerial photographs and laser mapping since then. You can see from the part of Salvo that my house is in, the Shoreline hasn't moved much in 167 years. That was good enough for me.

The blue line in the photo between the 1852 and 2004 marks is 322 feet.



www.darenc.com/how-do-i-/...


RE: rising sea levels




Thanks, curry. I saw something similar a few months back further up OBX that showed more erosion. My recollection is that the rate of change is accelerating quite a bit, if not alarmingly so, at least in some areas. I don't remember the details now, but I think nourishment is now going on in NH now every 6 years or so? Does that sound right?


RE: rising sea levels




Different areas will have different rates of erosion. Some areas will actually expand instead of erode. The moving coast line is actually a natural effect of the barrier islands. This is going to happen with or without climate change or rising sea levels. The Outer Banks and other barrier islands have been moving toward the mainland for a very long time now. Well before we settled it.

Is it accelerating because of sea level changes? Maybe, but there's not enough data to say. It's certainly not a factor we should ignore.

John


RE: rising sea levels




The sea level is definitely rising, and there should be no debate about that. It’s been rising for the last 12,000 years, or so. Back then you could walk all the way out to the tip of Hatteras Canyon, which is now 100 fathoms deep. All of that water came from melting glaciers, and this is not the first melting ice age event in our planet’s history. A Carl Sagan used to say: “It’s been going on for billions and billions of years.”
The debate here is are we causing it? That’s a topic I refuse to discuss, but the sea level is rising.


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