I read an article, somewhat recently, where I think Doug Brindley said that about 20% of his rentals were pulled out of the program after they were sold. Last year was the fullest I've seen in OBX. Do you guys think their will be a noticeable decline in crowds vs last year based on less homes being rentable? Or even if the above is true are more people sharing rental homes this year that would offset that?

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We were down Easter week///crowds. No, I think the crowds will stay because of pandemic increased popularity of road trips. outer banks beaches listed as top destination spots and that Netflix series OUTER BANKS that isnt even filmed there. Everyone has to admit its a good location for kids.

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RV sales are up and people are using the campgrounds more too!

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I read an article, somewhat recently, where I think Doug Brindley said that about 20% of his rentals were pulled out of the program after they were sold. Last year was the fullest I've seen in OBX. Do you guys think their will be a noticeable decline in crowds vs last year based on less homes being rentable? Or even if the above is true are more people sharing rental homes this year that would offset that?

Pulled out of Brindley's program, or pulled out all rental programs? A lot of folks shop around for PMs after a buying a new place, or go the Vrbo route. I suspect even the houses that are no longer renting will go back to the rental market after the world opens up and the owners spend more time in their offices or vacationing overseas.

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There will be no decline this year. Rental companies are at 100% capacity. Airbnb and VRBO have both become more popular and homes that were long term rentals have turned into weekly rentals. Buckle up!

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The development where our house is has declining homes in rental programs.

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I was a former vrbo guy before I moved here permanently. I can say in my neighborhood at least 3 house were sold that pulled the homes out and are using them for themselves. That's a big reduction in rental availability.

I was also at the eye doctors last week and sat next to two guys having a chat about the changes in their neighborhoods. The part I heard was from a guy in Frisco and he said that all his rental neighbors had sold and a bunch of Northeast people moved in permanently. He didn't like the vibe on the street anymore.

I think this is what Brindley is referring to. That's why I'm hoping some realtors who know what the deal is could chime in. I'm expecting less people on the beaches in my neighborhood this summer vs last summer.

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Good point. At least four fulltime residents right by us now. Three in the past year. The other not long before that.

May be more , too. Several changed hands recently, and they may be at least out of rental program, if not fulltime homes.

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It's actually close to a net netural.

Investors have bought older homes and updated/rehabbed and turned them into AirBnB/VRBO

People have moved here and bought homes out of rental programs, removing them from inventory.

Some rental companies have lost more homes than others over the past 1.5 years, across the board I'd imagine most companies have lost at least some.

But the homes offered by vacation rental companies that might have been ignored or not filled up a couple of years ago are having record years and are 100% all through summer.

Throw in the fact that vacation rental companies are on pace for record bookings this year (and many set records last year) and I really think it's going to be very similar to last year during summer, we will just have more rented weeks this year in the spring/fall.

Then consider the new construction (like some of the larger 8+ BR homes SAGA is working on at Tarheel Shores in Rodanthe and the ones going up in Corolla) and the capacity for visitors more or less evens out.

Even the property management companies saying they have lost 50+ homes would have to admit that from a revenue standpoint, regardless of having fewer rentable homes, they are probably on pace to beat last year despite the home losses and a couple of companies are probably already ahead. 2019 was a weak year for rentals, 2020 they missed a month+ due to Covid, and this year is likely better than either of the last 2 from a revenue and booking standpoint.

My $0.02.

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SOLDontheOuterBanks and PaulO thanks for the info. It's very dynamic and will be interesting to see how it all unfolds this summer.

SOLDontheOuterBanks sounds on the money for OBX as a whole. But I'm guessing that neighborhoods like PaulO and mine wiill have a lower headcount on the beach this year.

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I read an article, somewhat recently, where I think Doug Brindley said that about 20% of his rentals were pulled out of the program after they were sold. Last year was the fullest I've seen in OBX. Do you guys think their will be a noticeable decline in crowds vs last year based on less homes being rentable? Or even if the above is true are more people sharing rental homes this year that would offset that?

Pulled out of Brindley's program, or pulled out all rental programs? A lot of folks shop around for PMs after a buying a new place, or go the Vrbo route. I suspect even the houses that are no longer renting will go back to the rental market after the world opens up and the owners spend more time in their offices or vacationing overseas.

Moving from one PM to another after a sale is quite common IF the timing is right. Most investors don't move if the rentals are soon to happen and the law requires you honor those rentals already booked BUT it does not say you must honor them with the same PM. Most don't move like that, they wait until it is easy to move in the off season. Buyers often think they will do better with a different PM. If Brindley lost 20% I am sure they got some joining in that were at a different PM last year to offset the 20% that left. Our office turns down more than we lose.

I don't see the over crowding like last year - yet. The summer usually has 100% of the rentals rented in July-Aug so it can't get but so crowded here - 100% full is still 100% full. This year is different, so far, in that the rentals are starting a month or more sooner than normal.

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Tim ... is there any data on average number of people in house by year?

For example, 100% rented may not change. I wonder if a house that sleeps 10 may now have 9 staying there, rather than 6 as more people tag along. That would be a 50% increase in people with no increase in rentals.

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Tim ... is there any data on average number of people in house by year?

For example, 100% rented may not change. I wonder if a house that sleeps 10 may now have 9 staying there, rather than 6 as more people tag along. That would be a 50% increase in people with no increase in rentals.

No way to really know how many people are actually in the house. The over packing last year was noticeable just looking at the cars in a driveway and it was obvious each couple brought their own car.

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Tim ... is there any data on average number of people in house by year?

For example, 100% rented may not change. I wonder if a house that sleeps 10 may now have 9 staying there, rather than 6 as more people tag along. That would be a 50% increase in people with no increase in rentals.

No way to really know how many people are actually in the house. The over packing last year was noticeable just looking at the cars in a driveway and it was obvious each couple brought their own car.

I attribute part (note i'm only saying part) of this was people who usually go elsewhere who aren't aware/or caring about the '2 per room' standard in Outer Banks rentals. Everywhere else I've ever rented it's a 'pack as many in as beds allow' standard (3 bedroom cabins sleeping 12). And yes, I understand the reasoning of the '2 per room standard'.

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I heard from the locals that yes, this is true and that they are having a hard time filling jobs because of lack of lower end rentals, so these kids/young people that usually come to work have nowhere to stay. Many of them were bought up and being used privately now.

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I attribute part (note i'm only saying part) of this was people who usually go elsewhere who aren't aware/or caring about the '2 per room' standard in Outer Banks rentals

Sounds like kids. I think most people outgrow the crash/party house arrangements by about 22 or so unless they are somewhat slow in embracing adulthood.

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I own a house in Frisco. We are booked from the last week of March through the 1st week of November. At 100 %, and I expect the fall holiday weeks will fill when we get closer.

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I think most people outgrow the crash/party house arrangements by about 22 or so unless they are somewhat slow in embracing adulthood.

sigh...one can only wish....OBX 2020 was the exact opposite...hopefully 2021 will be an improvement

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I was also at the eye doctors last week and sat next to two guys having a chat about the changes in their neighborhoods. The part I heard was from a guy in Frisco and he said that all his rental neighbors had sold and a bunch of Northeast people moved in permanently. He didn't like the vibe on the street anymore.
.

Where in Frisco? That concerns me since I am there.

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Tim ... is there any data on average number of people in house by year?

For example, 100% rented may not change. I wonder if a house that sleeps 10 may now have 9 staying there, rather than 6 as more people tag along. That would be a 50% increase in people with no increase in rentals.

No way to really know how many people are actually in the house. The over packing last year was noticeable just looking at the cars in a driveway and it was obvious each couple brought their own car.

Tim. Do you think crowding has anything to do with the rising cost to rent? When we stayed in SNH a few years ago, there were some places so crowded that some people were sleeping in their vehicles.

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Tim. Do you think crowding has anything to do with the rising cost to rent? When we stayed in SNH a few years ago, there were some places so crowded that some people were sleeping in their vehicles.

If you are asking if people are overcrowding a house because the rent is so high they need more people to offset the cost for each renter, then NO. That has been the case for many years, not just recently. It is common to see a 4 bed house with 10-12 people in it. That has gone on for many years. These days everyone is driving themselves here and that is why we see so many cars. My opinion ...

The house next to mine rents for $12,000 a week and has 8 bedrooms. That is $1500 a person with 8 or $1200 with 10 or $1000 ea with 12. That has been going on a long time and those 20+ bed homes make it very common to pack em in.

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I was also at the eye doctors last week and sat next to two guys having a chat about the changes in their neighborhoods. The part I heard was from a guy in Frisco and he said that all his rental neighbors had sold and a bunch of Northeast people moved in permanently. He didn't like the vibe on the street anymore.
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Where in Frisco? That concerns me since I am there.

Sorry, no other info, I sat down at the end of their conversation. The fella from Frisco was probably in his 60s and had a very laid back beach vibe to him.

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Tim. Do you think crowding has anything to do with the rising cost to rent? When we stayed in SNH a few years ago, there were some places so crowded that some people were sleeping in their vehicles.

If you are asking if people are overcrowding a house because the rent is so high they need more people to offset the cost for each renter, then NO. That has been the case for many years, not just recently. It is common to see a 4 bed house with 10-12 people in it. That has gone on for many years. These days everyone is driving themselves here and that is why we see so many cars. My opinion ...

The house next to mine rents for $12,000 a week and has 8 bedrooms. That is $1500 a person with 8 or $1200 with 10 or $1000 ea with 12. That has been going on a long time and those 20+ bed homes make it very common to pack em in.

Thanks. Sounds similar o what was going on after the crash in 2008. We started noticing more cars in the driveway.

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I sold my house in the Village at Nags Head ( never rented ) this past January to a couple from Maryland who plans to live there full time. Six months prior, the house next door sold as the same....new buyers will live there full time. Just last month my Realtor told me he was buying in the Village to live full time. There have been others the past couple years. Definitely a trend!

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Tim ... is there any data on average number of people in house by year?

For example, 100% rented may not change. I wonder if a house that sleeps 10 may now have 9 staying there, rather than 6 as more people tag along. That would be a 50% increase in people with no increase in rentals.

No way to really know how many people are actually in the house. The over packing last year was noticeable just looking at the cars in a driveway and it was obvious each couple brought their own car.

Tim. Do you think crowding has anything to do with the rising cost to rent? When we stayed in SNH a few years ago, there were some places so crowded that some people were sleeping in their vehicles.

Anf that is why I love,love ,love repeat guest.
We do raise our rent enough to keep up with repairs
and taxes etc., but not to the point that a repeat guest would start looking for something more affordable

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